How much progress would signify a decent return on a £153million summer investment in new signings at Manchester United?
A five-point improvement on this stage last season? Eight points? Ten points?
Or maybe the luxury of being able to select an 18-man squad to face Southampton without including a striker earning £265,000-a-week?
Whatever the benchmark, the reality of Louis van Gaal’s first 21 games in charge of United is that the return of 37 points is exactly the same as that of his doomed predecessor, David Moyes.
When Moyes made a big call in terms of team selection, it usually extended to omitting the likes of Tom Cleverley or Danny Welbeck from his starting line-up, but having lavished more than £150million of the Glazer family’s unspent millions on his United squad, Van Gaal’s decision to leave Radamel Falcao sitting in the stands emphasised the greater quality and depth at the Dutchman’s disposal in comparison to Moyes.
Sunday’s defeat against Southampton at Old Trafford offered a reality check, however, in terms of the upward curve United are supposedly climbing under Van Gaal.
Statistically, Van Gaal’s United is no better than Moyes’s, which should be a worrying fact for the former Ajax, Barcelona and Bayern Munich coach.
“So you have waited until this moment when you can put this question,” Van Gaal said, when told of the Moyes comparison. “All the weeks, you have waited to put this question, the moment I have the same points as David Moyes, that I haven’t made better.”
Van Gaal’s exasperated reaction to being compared to a man sacked after steering United to seventh position was understandable.
Since succeeding the Scot, Van Gaal has raised morale and belief at Old Trafford, dragging both off the floor with a summer spending spree that saw the likes of Falcao, Angel di Maria, Ander Herrera and others arrive at the club.
He has also lifted the team into the top four and on course for a return to the Champions League, so progress can be measured in that respect, but against Southampton, the football on display was a return to the darkest days of Moyes’s failed reign.
Any back three including Chris Smalling, who treats the ball like a hornets’ nest, is always likely to cause consternation and alarm, while Juan Mata’s ongoing search for a decisive impact in a game against quality opponents is now approaching its first anniversary.
Di Maria, deployed alongside Robin van Persie as a central striker against Southampton, is struggling to affect games as his £59.7million price tag suggests he should, while Falcao, conspicuous by absence from duty in this game, has hardly done enough to warrant headline news at being overlooked.
Three goals in five injury-interrupted months at Old Trafford is the sum total of the Colombian’s contribution during a season-long loan which, barring a prolific run of form between now and May, will surely result in him being sent back to Monaco rather than signed for a pre-agreed £43.2million fee.
Van Gaal’s explanation of Falcao’s omission here was plausible – he wanted the pace of James Wilson as cover for Di Maria and more defensive options to replace the short-of-fitness Luke Shaw and Daley Blind – but if one of the world’s most renowned forwards missed out to a teenager with pace, he may as well start packing for Monte Carlo.
“We have now a lot of players coming back and he [Falcao] has played the last five matches in a row,” Van Gaal said. “So I have to compare players with each other and now he was out of the 18.
“That is this moment, but next week is another moment.”
An ankle injury sustained by Robin van Persie may see Falcao return to the team against Queens Park Rangers next Saturday, but the 28-year-old is becoming a sideshow in the bigger picture at Old Trafford.
United’s 11-game unbeaten run, which was brought to an end by Dusan Tadic’s second-half goal, has papered over cracks and fuelled a sense of complacency that all will be well under Van Gaal, with a top four finish as good as guaranteed.
But within that run have been unconvincing away draws at Aston Villa, Tottenham and Stoke, all marked by a lack of killer instinct and pace, which have combined to make United predictable and easy to defend against.
Last summer’s investment was long overdue, but it appears to have been a drop in the ocean in terms of what is still required.
Mats Hummels and Diego Godin, both on United’s radar this month, would instantly add class and experience to the defence, while the energy of Kevin Strootman would give the team a much-needed forward gear in midfield.
Up-front, there is a lack of cutting edge, with a vacancy for at least two new faces to freshen up either now or in the summer.
By then, United will hope and expect to be back in the Champions League, but their performance against Southampton offered a timely reminder that there are no guarantees.
David Moyes can also attest to that.
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